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SAF/e-SAF

What is the importance of SAF in energy transition?

Sustainable Aviation Fuel is the biggest lever to decarbonise the hard-to-abate aviation sector. While current cost of SAF production is more expensive than traditional jet fuels, SAF is still seen as the most promising solution relative to alternatives such as electric and hydrogen aircrafts.

How can etasca help?

The etasca team have commercial and technical experience on some of the largest SAF (including e-SAF) projects worldwide. We can provide techno-economic reviews, independent technology reviews, demand and pricing outlooks or  due diligence support on projects.

We support project finance and equity investment into the largest green hydrogen projects globally.

Interested?  contactus@etasca.com

%

Reduction in carbon emissions in
which the aviation industry has
committed to by 2050 (from a 2005 level)

million USD

Expected size of SAF
market by 2030

Commercial considerations:

SAF production is small but growing fast.

  • Current global production is around 5m tons per year but with growth at ~30% CAGR to 2030.

SAF has different production pathways. Some are resource constrained, others are energy constrained.

  • Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (“HEFA”) are the most common source of SAF production and involve hydrogenation of fats/oils and cracking/isomerising.
  • Alcohol to Jet converts alcohol into SAF by dehydration and oligomerisation. Common feedstocks are corn, sugar cane and waste-based (e.g. MSW).
  • Fischer-Tropsch (FT) based production converts synthesis gas (sygas) into SAF. Syngas can be produced from any carbon-containing feedstocks. The FT feedstock is typically waste-based – e.g. MSW and forest residues which need gasified into syngas.
  • e-SAF uses the FT process with RWGS but with electrolytic hydrogen using renewable energy, and other eligible carbon sources including direct air capture, biogenic industrial sources and captured industrial emissions.

There are a few key policies supporting SAF demand growth. 

  • The SAF Grand Challenge in the US aiming to supply at 3 billion gallons per year of SAF by 2030, and cover 100% by 2050. Tax credit is up to $1.75 per gallon.
  • In the EU the ReFuel EU targets for SAF are 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050. There are also separate synthetic fuels (e-SAF) targets from 1.2% by 2030 rising to 35% by 2050.
  • The UK has The Pathway to Net Zero Aviation, a 10% SAF mandate by 2030. The UK is also considering a revenue certainty mechanism by 2026 to support debt finance.

Technical considerations:

Six different types of SAF have now been approved by ASTM.

  • A maximum SAF blend of 50 percent is approved for aviation use. This is mainly due to the low aromatic content limiting further use in current jet engines.
  • Fuel specifications are set by the American Standard of Testing Materials (ASTM). Properties include flash point, aromatic content, freeze point and Derived Cetane Number (DCN).

Pretreatment of biobased feedstock is critical

e-SAF cost of production is still 3-5 times higher than the price of conventional fossil-based jet kerosene. 

Costs are expected to reduce significantly.

e-SAF production using Fishers-Tropsch process technology has significant co-products consideration. 

  • The crude products from FT technology consists of long chains of paraffins which need to be further processed (hydro-processed, hydrocracked). Typical product yields is 80% SAF and 20% naphtha-like products.

Power-to-liquid technology is typically capex-intensive and may have renewables intermittency issues. 

  • e-fuels production facilities need to be designed and configured efficiently at suitable capacity for sustained operations at high full-load, despite the likely intermittency of renewable electricity supply.